The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted on Tuesday that India’s need for electricity to run residential air conditioners will increase ninefold by 2050 and surpass Africa’s current total power consumption.
According to stated policy scenarios, it predicted that India’s energy supply will increase from 42 exajoules (EJ) in 2022 to 53.7 EJ in 2030 and 73 EJ in 2050; under pledged measures, it would climb to 47.6 EJ by 2030 and 60.3 EJ by 2050.
India’s air conditioner ownership has been increasing gradually with rising earnings, driven by the country’s geographic and meteorological circumstances. Since 2010, the number of air conditioners per 100 houses has tripled to 24.
“The impact of cooling needs on electricity consumption is already clear,” the Paris-based agency mentioned.
“Electricity demand is sensitive to temperatures, and in India’s case there is a sharp increase in demand as temperatures cross the 25-degree Celsius threshold.”
“Household air conditioner ownership is estimated to expand ninefold by 2050 across the IEA scenarios, outpacing the growth in ownership of every other major household appliance including televisions, refrigerators and washing machines,” it added. “Residential electricity demand from cooling increases ninefold in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) by 2050.”
IEA quoted that India by 2050, “India’s total electricity demand from residential air conditioners in the STEPS exceeds total electricity consumption in the whole of Africa today.”
Due to a rise in the use of energy-efficient air conditioners and improved building thermal insulation, the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) shows an approximately 15% reduction in the power consumption for air conditioners in 2050 compared to the STEPS.”This reduction itself is larger than the total electricity generation by several countries today, such as that of the Netherlands”.
“Lowering cooling demand through energy efficiency policies therefore reduces the need for investment in batteries or expensive standby generation capacity, and thus helps to integrate renewables more cost effectively,” IEA added.
According to the IEA, India’s energy development is entering a dynamic new phase that will be characterised by a long-term goal of net zero emissions, more sophisticated regulations, an emphasis on the deployment of clean energy, and the establishment of local supply chains for clean energy technologies.
“While clean energy investment in India more than doubles in the STEPS by 2030 from around USD 60 billion in 2022, investment needs to nearly triple by the end of this decade to be on a trajectory to meet its net zero emissions target, which is reflected in the APS,” it mentioned.
“As a result, demand for oil and natural gas increases in the STEPS by nearly 70 per cent between 2022 and 2050, while coal demand increases by 10 per cent, even as solar PV makes inroads into electricity generation. As a result, India’s annual CO2 emissions still rise nearly 30 per cent by 2050, which is one of the largest increases in the world,” outlook reported.
“As a result, India’s annual CO2 emissions fall sharply in the APS by over 40 per cent from current levels by 2050, even though its GDP quadruples over this period,” it added.
